Doug Schoen, a long-time Democratic strategist is warning his party they could face disaster in 2022. With Joe Biden’s favorability sinking faster than a lead balloon, Schoen says this election could be much worse than the last two Republican tsunamis.
In 1995 Republicans picked up 52 seats in the House and 8 seats in the Senate. In 2010, Republicans picked up 64 House seats and 6 Senate seats. So, when Schoen says it could be worse than those two elections, it is a dire warning indeed.
“President Biden is in a significantly weaker position now than both of his most recent Democratic predecessors — Bill Clinton and Barack Obama — at this point in their presidencies. Which suggests that Democrats could suffer even more substantial losses in 2022 than the party did in 1994 and 2010.”
Generally speaking, the president loses seats in the midterm election, except for George W. Bush in his first midterm. He actually picked up a few seats. And remember, both Clinton and Obama were fairly popular at this same point in their presidency.
Right now, Biden i/s just behind used car salesmen in popularity, although he does have a slight lead over AIDS.
“Indeed, voters nationally and in seven key swing-states disapprove, rather than approve, of the job President Biden is doing by a margin of 7-points or greater, according to a Civiqs survey released last week. Nationally, one-half (50 percent) of voters disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, while just 42 percent approve.”
“The Democrats’ 1994 defeat came after they pushed through Congress the then-largest tax increase in history without any Republican support. And in 2010, Democrats lost due in large part to voters’ perception of an ineffective economic stimulus, as well as governmental overreach on healthcare and the economy by the administration and congressional Democrats.”
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Schoen noted that Obama’s net approval rating was 19-points higher than Biden’s right now, and yet in the 2010 midterms, Democrats lost a net of 64 seats in the House, and Republicans gained six seats in the Senate. In 1994, Democrats lost a net of 52 seats in the House, and Republicans gained eight seats in the Senate.
While there’s still more than a year before the midterms, Schoen acknowledged that “Democrats’ blowout midterm defeats in both 1994 and 2010 can be attributed in large part to their passage of massive spending and tax bills in the years prior.”
History seems to be repeating itself as Democrats are pushing a $3.5 trillion spending bill, which even Schoen admits will not only bring massive tax increases, but also increase annual deficits, the national debt, and inflation. This, he believes, will likely spark an “electoral backlash” bigger than both 1994 and 2010.