The Democrats are caught between a rock and a hard place thanks to Joe Manchin. Manchin refuses to vote to kill the filibuster.
Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema is also against both bills. But, Manchin is the real problem for Schumer and his radical agenda. Most of his bills cannot pass unless the filibuster is done away with. But, Schumer doesn’t dare take extreme measures to either criticize Manchin or to pressure him to vote with the party.
The reason is simple. Manchin could just switch parties and give the Republicans the majority. He could primary him in the next election but West Virginia is deep red and Manchin is the only Democrat who can win.
If Schumer loses him, he loses the Senate seat for the distant future. The leftists in the party, including Joe Biden, have been very critical of both Manchin and Sinema. They are pressuring Schumer to do something. I hope he does. Manchin would be a good fit for the GOP.
The bottom line is that H.R. 1 is officially dead. The Democrats would need 10 GOP Senators to pass the bill that would allow the Democrats to manipulate elections forever.
The federalization of the election process is a bad idea and I suspect that even if it were passed, the Supreme Court would strike it down. This is not a case where you can just change the law, you need to amend the constitution.
From Joe Manchin’s op-ed:
The John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act would update the formula states and localities must use to ensure proposed voting laws do not restrict the rights of any particular group or population. My Republican colleague, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, has joined me in urging Senate leadership to update and pass this bill through regular order.
That’s nice that he has Murkowski on board with the John Lewis bill but he needs nine more Republicans to beat a filibuster. Let’s say he gets all seven who voted to convict Trump (Murkowski was one of those seven) plus Rob Portman, who’s retiring and who voted in favor of the January 6 commission. That’s eight. Who are the other two? Maybe Roy Blunt, who’s also retiring, would consider it. But that’s still one short. Who’s the tenth, and decisive, vote?
Which GOP incumbent wants to risk infuriating a Republican base that’s been convinced by Trump that he lost in November only because states made it easier to vote during the pandemic, enabling some sort of still unexplained fraud on a massive scale?