The Democratic plan for winning Florida is that they would rack up with mail-in ballots and early voting. Going into election day, the Democrats had a 108,000 lead. In less than three hours, the Democrats only led by 6,000. That is bad news for Biden and the Democrats. They had hoped their early lead would hold up throughout the night.
Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL) reported that Republicans are showing up to vote in incredible numbers. Remember that this is just counting votes by party. If a lot of Democrats go for Trump, he could actually be in the lead. Biden’s campaign is now pushing the narrative that Biden can win even if Trump takes Florida and Pennsylvania.
2.5 hrs into voting and heavy GOP turnout has cut the Dem ballot lead from 112k to 6k! Two caveats. Miami-Dade reporting is slower from manually reporting their totals and GOP-heavy panhandle is an hour behind.
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President Trump has spent a lot of time in Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And his supporters flocked in huge numbers. Not only that but 25% of the people in those states are ones who did not vote in the last election. Many pollsters don’t count first ‘time voters. That’s because they don’t consider them as likely voters. That skews the polls.
Democrats carried an early voting lead in Florida into Election Day in 2016 as well only to have that margin erased by the GOP, resulting in Trump winning the state.
This year, the Democratic lead going into Election Day might have to be larger than usual. An overwhelming majority of Democrats have indicated they plan to or already have voted by mail or done early voting, while those voting for Trump have indicated they plan to vote on Election Day. As the Democrats lead continues to narrow ahead of Nov. 3, a wave of Republican voters could help push Trump over the top in the state.
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“Democrats’ early voting across the state is actually falling well short of what they would need to win if they lose Election Day, observed the Hill’s John Pudner. “Again, the advantage goes to Republicans in Florida.”
If Trump takes Florida and Pennsylvania, Joe Biden will have a hard time getting over that. But it should be a fun night. I want to see Rachel Maddow cry.