Republicans Win State Legislatures in Key Census Year

One of the major consequences of this year’s election is the failure for Democrats to increase their lead in the House. The Democrats failed miserably after predicting a gain of 5 to 15 seats. Instead, the Republicans won between 5 and 15 seats. That is a huge swing. Depending on the final numbers, it would only take a couple of Democratic defectors to stop Democratic legislation.

But, even more consequential is what happened in the state legislature voting. Democrats did not change any states’ legislatures blue. So far, Republicans have altered two states in their favor. Why is the state legislatures so important? This is the year that states redraw their districts for US House seats.

There are some interesting scenarios. New York will lose at least one congressional district and speculation is the legislature plans on eliminating AOC’s district, forcing herr to run against a popular Democrat in 2022.

Since the Republicans dominate in more states than Democrats, they can redraw district lines that will gain them one or two seats in the House. The same thing happened in 2010 when there was a red wave. Because 2022 will be a tough election for Democrats anyway after 2 years of Biden/Harris. It was their extreme agenda that stopped the Democrats in the House and Senate elections this year.

The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday:

Democrats have come up short in their bid to flip control of several state legislative chambers this year and gain power in a coming round of redistricting.

As of late Wednesday, Republicans had flipped control of two chambers, the New Hampshire state House and Senate, according to the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures. Arizona’s state Senate and House were too close to call.

Of the 98 partisan chambers, Republicans will control at least 59 next year. (Nebraska has a nonpartisan, unicameral Legislature.)

Republicans will control both legislative chambers in 24 of the 36 states in which legislatures draw district lines for U.S. Congress, the state legislature itself, or both, according to the conference.

The Democrats spent $88 million in trying to overturn Republican legislatures in ten states. They didn’t change a one of them. In most of the blue states redistricting is of no use to them. New York, Illinois, California and Massachusetts already have nearly all Democratic legislatures by a wide margin. Maryland, Washington and Oregon could be added to that list.

That leaves Democrats the advantage in 34 states to the Republicans’ 59. The advantage gained will last for five House races.

Steven Ahle